Thursday, December 15, 2011

American Airlines lances the wound

Finally. This not-so-transparent elephant in the room has had its cloaking device de-powered. All of the AA employees are (finally) on the same plane, as it were. From the skycaps at the airport to the executives in Texas, we are all walking through the courthouse doors, shoulder-to-shoulder, as we enter Chapter 11. But, before the sayers of doom; the self-proclaimed analysts that have spent more time creating their own platforms of self-important perspective than learning this highly nuanced industry start writing the epitaphs, the public (ya know, the people that read these factually-void rants) should know the truths. And the most important one is this: the sun also rises. (Boy, I wish I was the first to write that..)

American Airlines will not attempt to rewrite history, rather, the airline will take advantage of the industry's history that has led us to this point. We have been sitting at the poker table watching the tells; going to school on those that have been playing the game. While, it's true, we have lost money on certain antes and bets, we have protected enormous reserves while incrementally and quietly creating side deals that will propel us past those that took us for a beleaguered and waning entity. Let's just consider that an investment; the cost of doing this business. Of note, we will, at an exponential pace, become the worldwide carrier with the youngest, most adaptable fleet of the newest generation aircraft. We will have a cost structure that cannot be ignored or taken for granted. With the already-announced replacement of senior management, the employees will finally start to feel like they have a part in the renascence.

Most of the analysts miss that part. They don't mention that American goes into this process with more than four billion dollars in the bank. No other airline has done that. We can't be bullied by debtors-in-possession because there aren't very many. Because of that, a hostile takeover is hardly a threat and we will consider merging interests on our terms. Read Boyd's report. He's spent his time living with the industry while other reporters are off reading the Cliff Notes of industry analysis and cobbling together something from a Googled search. To be fair, most of these business writers couldn't possible understand the complex matrices that make an airline operate and an airplane fly safely from Point A to Point B. They are just not experienced enough to know that. But I'll never understand why they pretend to do so.

The dark side. Yes, the employees will take a hit. We have been living under a compromised contract for eight years and we thought our sacrifices would be paid back, with interest. While we might have been better off today with the bankruptcy option in 2003, we have had our pensions intact for that much longer. What happens next is anybody's guess. But, I am very confident that this was not an overnight decision and when Tom Horton was brought back, it was with a very keen eye looking towards November 29, 2011.

Tom is touring our bases, cites and crew domiciles. He is listening to his colleagues (rank and file) and the feel is one of coalesced confidence. Generically, the overall attitude is one of acceptance and aggressive rebuilding.

In the meantime, the airline's operations run normally with the business issues transparent to the average customer. There are promotional programs to double frequent flyer miles (which are perfectly safe), add Samsung tablets to business and first class cabins on selected flights, new aircraft continue to arrive and, as of this week, American Airlines becomes the first airline in history that has FAA authorization for pilots to use iPads for all operational information; gate to gate. We can finally unload those forty pound bags and save our backs (and medical costs..).

So, look up. That's where American is going.