Friday, July 20, 2012

The Times, They Are a-Changin'

Dylan (Bob) was (is) so right.

The pilots of American Airlines are approaching a waypoint.  This is a point in legal and nautical space where a course, as yet to be selected, will be taken.  Dynamic environments require planning, consideration and intentionality. Procrastination is not an option.  For those who want to wait and see what happens, I recommend geology.

Since this vote will determine the course of our airline after August 8th, 2012, the choice is pivotal.  It is also binary.  We have to decide whether to accept the tentative agreement (TA) the union (Allied Pilots Association) has approved and sent to the membership for ratification or reject it and let the bankruptcy court decide our initial fate.  The choice is really simple.  If a member believes that there is more on the table that can be brought to the pilots in the form of another agreement, that pilot will vote no.  If a pilot believes that approving this deal is better than the consequences of a TA rejection, which would probably include: contract abrogation by the court, extended time frame for re-negotiations and confidence that this agreement will allow American Airlines to compete effectively with the competition while securing benefits not included in the consequences of contract abrogation, that pilot will vote yes.

The pilots are frustrated and angry.  Some see a 'no' vote as a message to management that enough is enough.  We gave hundreds of millions with our concessionary vote in '03 and management has wasted our money and run us into the ground (which, in any aviation sense, is a really bad idea).  Others see this as a realistic path to health and prosperity based on where we are (vs. where we were).  The industry has changed and the competition has figured that out. We either change with the environment or become part of the pantheon of airlines that exist only in the forms of memorabilia, fables, and stories from the good ol' days.

The younger pilots with impaired seniority may reject this TA because they have other options overseas.  The older/senior pilots might reject this because they believe their "seats" to be safe (with more on the table and nothing to lose). Everyone else might see the pay raises, seat protection, retirement protection and 13.5% equity stake as two in the bush and vote yes to ratify the agreement.  In any case, it seems that some votes are based on anger and some votes based on objective consequences.

Many have called for a new management team.  Many would love to see Bob Crandall's return to an AMR leadership role.  Bob Crandall believes that the pilots must accept this TA.  If A equals B...

Regardless, the best vote, yes or no, is the one that is based on prudence and pragmatism.  It's perfectly valid to be angry at management failures and mistakes now in the past, but the valid vote is based on the objective flow chart.  This is how we fly airplanes.  This vote for our collective futures should be handled with equal and due consideration.

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